A Statistical Analysis of the Relationship Between Unemployment and Crime in India (1992–2021)

This research paper, titled “Unemployment and Crime in India (1992–2021): A Statistical Analysis”, examines the relationship between unemployment levels and crime rates over a thirty-year period. Using secondary data from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) and the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI), the study investigates whether changes in unemployment have a measurable effect on crime trends in India. Applying Karl Pearson’s correlation and simple linear regression, the analysis reveals a very strong positive correlation (r = 0.96) between unemployment and crime rate, indicating that both variables tend to move in the same direction. The coefficient of determination (R² = 0.93) shows that unemployment explains 93% of the variation in crime, demonstrating a strong statistical relationship. indicates that an increase in unemployment is associated with a proportional increase in crime. The p-value (< 0.05) confirms that the results are statistically significant. Overall, the findings suggest that unemployment is a major socio-economic factor influencing crime in India, with higher unemployment contributing to higher crime levels. The study emphasizes the need for effective employment generation, skill development, and long-term economic stability to reduce crime and improve social welfare.