International Journal of Social Science Research (IJSSR)

Growth Patterns of Area, Yield, and Productivity of Major Fruit Crops in Assam: An Analysis Using Vector Autoregression

Abstract Fruit cultivation holds a crucial place in Assam’s agricultural economy, supporting both rural livelihoods and nutritional needs. The research work analyses the growth dynamics of area, production, and productivity of nine major fruit crops, viz., banana, pineapple, papaya, orange, guava, Assam lemon, litchi, jackfruit, and mango, over the period 2010 to 2024. Using secondary data from the Statistical Handbook of Assam, the study applies the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) analysis to trace growth patterns, and the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to identify key determinants influencing fruit crop productivity. The CAGR results reveal considerable variability in the area, production, and productivity of fruit crops in Assam from 2010 to 2024. While guava demonstrated significant increases in both cultivable area and productivity, mango exhibited the maximum growth in production. Furthermore, the results of the VAR model show that cropping intensity and fertiliser consumption have a positive and significant impact on productivity, while irrigation intensity affects it negatively, indicating a bias towards rice-focused irrigation practices in the state. The scope of the study is far-reaching, offering valuable insights for enhancing productivity, promoting sustainable agricultural practices, and strengthening the role of horticulture in Assam’s rural development. Keywords: Fruit cultivation, panel data, CAGR, VAR model